Category: Pol 325- Florida Republican Primary Special Project

Florida Republican Primary- Monday February 15, 2016 to Sunday Mar 6, 2016-Super Tuesday Special

 

The Presidential Primary builds momentum in the Sunshine State as March 15 Primaries potentially make or break nominees.  Voters can request an absentee ballot be sent by mail between February 9 and March 9, 2016.  The five remaining candidates continue to compete for airtime but Trump, Rubio and Cruz dominate the news cycle. Quinnipiac released a new poll of likely Republican voters on February 25.   Florida Gov. Rick Scott has not endorsed a candidate.  In a late January press conference, he was asked of his plans to endorse a candidate and he replied he will before the Primary.  The interest in the Governors endorsement came likely because of an OP Ed in USA Today he wrote called “Donald Trump has Americas Pulse.”

Florida readies itself for the Primary 

The Sunday Feb 14 Miami Herald reported the absentee ballots were mailed out on February 9th.  These ballots include candidates that have dropped out since the printing.  According to Florida law early voting can begin February 29. The final opportunity to declare or change a party affiliation will be Tuesday February 16.  The herald observed that Floridians seemed to be focused on the election and election officials are preparing for higher than average turnout.  In 2008 42% and 2012 41% of registered Republican and Democrat voters participated in the primary.

Trump                                     trump 1

On the eve of the South Carolina primary Presidential Debate candidate Donald Trump packed the University of South Florida Sun Dome with 10,000 supporters.  Trump took the opportunity to attack Bush, eliminate common core and solicit the Hispanic vote.

A NY Times report alleged Trump is hiring foreigners in the country on H2B visas to work at his Mar a Lago estate in Palm Beach at the expense of Floridians.   The article says since 2010 300 Floridians applied for jobs at the estate but only 17 were hired.  Some hires were foreign in the country on temporary H2B visas which are reserved for persons without special skills and limited nationwide.   Persons in the United States on these visas cannot be hired before a US citizen.  In related campaign news Trump received endorsement from former Presidential candidate and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.

Rubio                                          rubio 1

Marco Rubio has picked up the support of several local Florida Politicians.  The spurt of endorsements came after the endorsement of South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Jeb Bush suspended his campaign.   Gov. Haley committed this week to a Rubio rally on March 12 in St. Petersburg.  Rubio likes his chances and feels the race is narrowing.

“So you have had Donald Trump sitting at around 30 percent or so nationally — sometimes under, sometimes a little over and then you have 70 percent of the Republican electorate does not support Donald Trump.” Rubio said.  “That 70 percent has been divided between five to seven people. As this race continues to narrow, I think that’ll be easier and easier, for that 70 percent to coalesce.”

Rubio is looking mare like an establishment candidate.  He will open a campaign Headquarters in Jacksonville to focus on northeast Florida on Tuesday, a week ahead of the Super Tuesday Primary.  The new location is a few blocks away from Florida’s Republican Headquarters and the site of the republican mayor of Jacksonville’s 2015 campaign headquarters.

Cruz                                                  cruz 1

Ted Cruz hasn’t touched the Sunshine state recently.  He is in the headlines as news for his debate and campaign trail rhetoric.  The Florida-Elect Ted Cruz Facebook page has 3,717 likes.  I have more and in the latest poll he is in third behind Trump and Rubio at 12%.  It look like Florida is a lost cause for Cruz

 

Polls

A new Quinnipiac poll was released this week with Trump ahead easily in Florida.  The poll of likely republican voters showed Trump at 44% with Rubio (28%), Cruz (12%) Kasich (7%) and Carson (4%) trailing.  There are 15% either undecided or holding out for a Bush comeback.

Pre Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday’s available delegates are not enough to wrap the nomination but at the end of the day a little more than half of the 1327 needed will be split among the candidates.  Candidates will have a clear picture on what it will take to secure the nomination if they assess they still have a chance.  Electability in the general election will begin to be a concern for voters and donors.  Super Tuesday can completely change the landscape of the Florida primary.

Post Super Tuesday

Donald Trump is easily the big winner in the Super Tuesday primaries.  As of this writing, with results still not finalized, Trump wins in 7 states.  Cruz wins in Texas, Alaska and Oklahoma keeping his campaign alive.  Rubio added to his delegate total with a win in Minnesota and delegates awarded through proportional allocation.  Rubio is likely committed through the Florida primary.  Kasich wins Vermont and also appears to be committed through his Mar 15  homestate Ohio primary.  Carson stubbornly is remaining in the race.

“People have asked for somebody who is not a politician, who was a member of we the people, who has an outstanding life of achievement and who thinks the way they do,” he told Fox News.

In post election press conferences, both Trump and Cruz presented themselves as the unifying candidate for Republican party.

Political Tweet of the week:

The best political tweets this week were Super Tuesday related and found at:

#freechris christie

 

 

Florida Republican Primary- Monday February 15, 2016 to Sunday February 28, 2016

The Presidential Primary builds momentum in the Sunshine State as March 15 Primaries potentially make or break nominees.  Voters can request an absentee ballot be sent by mail between February 9 and March 9, 2016.  The five remaining candidates continue to compete for airtime but Trump, Rubio and Cruz dominate the news cycle. Quinnipiac released a new poll of likely Republican voters on February 25.   Florida Gov. Rick Scott has not endorsed a candidate.  In a late January press conference, he was asked of his plans to endorse a candidate and he replied he will before the Primary.  The interest in the Governors endorsement came likely because of an OP Ed in USA Today he wrote called “Donald Trump has Americas Pulse.”

Florida readies itself for the Primary

The Sunday Feb 14 Miami Herald reported the absentee ballots were mailed out on February 9th.  These ballots include candidates that have dropped out since the printing.  According to Florida law early voting can begin February 29. The final opportunity to declare or change a party affiliation will be Tuesday February 16.  The herald observed that Floridians seemed to be focused on the election and election officials are preparing for higher than average turnout.  In 2008 42% and 2012 41% of registered Republican and Democrat voters participated in the primary.

Trump

On the eve of the South Carolina primary Presidential Debate candidate Donald Trump packed the University of South Florida Sun Dome with 10,000 supporters.  Trump took the opportunity to attack Bush, eliminate common core and solicit the Hispanic vote.

A NY Times report alleged Trump is hiring foreigners in the country on H2B visas to work at his Mar a Lago estate in Palm Beach at the expense of Floridians.   The article says since 2010 300 Floridians applied for jobs at the estate but only 17 were hired.  Some hires were foreign in the country on temporary H2B visas which are reserved for persons without special skills and limited nationwide.   Persons in the United States on these visas cannot be hired before a US citizen.  Trump rivals smelled blood and attacked.  In related campaign news Trump received endorsement from former Presidential candidate and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.

Rubio

Marco Rubio has picked up the support of several local Florida Politicians.  The spurt of endorsements came after the endorsement of South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Jeb Bush suspended his campaign.   Gov. Haley committed this week to a Rubio rally on March 12 in St. Petersburg.  Rubio likes his chances and feels the race is narrowing.

“So you have had Donald Trump sitting at around 30 percent or so nationally — sometimes under, sometimes a little over and then you have 70 percent of the Republican electorate does not support Donald Trump.” Rubio said.  “That 70 percent has been divided between five to seven people. As this race continues to narrow, I think that’ll be easier and easier, for that 70 percent to coalesce.”

Rubio is looking mare like an establishment candidate.  He will open a campaign Headquarters in Jacksonville to focus on northeast Florida on Tuesday, a week ahead of the Super Tuesday Primary.  The new location is a few blocks away from Florida’s Republican Headquarters and the site of the republican mayor of Jacksonville’s 2015 campaign headquarters.

Cruz

Ted Cruz hasn’t touched the Sunshine state recently.  He is in the headlines as news for his debate and campaign trail rhetoric.  The Florida-Elect Ted Cruz Facebook page has 3,717 likes.  I have more and in the latest poll he is in third behind Trump and Rubio at 12%.  It look like Florida is a lost cause for Cruz

Polls

A new Quinnipiac poll was released this week with Trump ahead easily.  The poll of likely republican voters showed Trump at 44% with Rubio (28%), Cruz (12%) Kasich (7%) and Carson (4%) trailing.  There are 15% either undecided or holding out for a Bush comeback.

Super Tuesday

March 1 is Super Tuesday.  The available delegates are not enough to wrap the nomination but at the end of the day a little more than half of the 1327 needed will be split among the candidates.  Candidates will have a clear picture on what it will take to secure the nomination if they assess they still have a chance.  Electability in the general election will begin to be a concern for voters and donors.  Super Tuesday can completely change the landscape of the March 15 Florida primary.

The candidates have been active on social media.  Here are some tweets to consider:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Florida Republican Primary- Week of Monday February 8, 2016 to Sunday February 14, 2016

INTRODUCTION

Florida Republicans will vote in a winner take all primary election on Tuesday March 15, 2016. In order to set the landscape for the Florida Republican Primary I felt a survey of he latest polls and a basic understanding of the Republican nomination process is a good beginning.  Secondly, two of the remaining candidates are current or former elected officials of the state of Florida and their political familiarity with Florida voters will factor into the race.  Finally, to determine the importance of the Florida primary two questions must be considered.  They are Do winners of the primary obtain the nomination? and if so, how do they fair in the general election?

 

Florida Polling

Real Clear Politics averaged polls of likely voters conducted by CBS News, Florida Atlantic University and the Florida Times Union between January 15 to January 21.  These polls have Donald Trump in the lead with 40% followed by Cruz (19.0%), Rubio (13.7%), Bush (9.0), Carson (5.0%) and Kasich (2.3%). The remaining 11% are for candidates the have suspended their campaigns since the polls.  August 2015 found Gov. Bush the early leader.  Trump began to close the gap in September and increased his lead steadily from October to January.  Cruz is the next largest increase, up 15% since August 2015.

 

 

ROAD TO THE CONVENTION

To secure the nomination, a Republican Presidential candidate will need 1237 of 2472 delegates at the August 6th Republican convention in Cleveland, Ohio.  The current republican delegate count is Trump 17, Cruz 11, Rubio 10, Kasich 5, Bush 4 and Carson 3.  Florida along with Illinois, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina will hold primaries on March 15 with 358 total delegates available.  According to Republican convention rules all primaries on or after March 15 award the winner all the delegates for that State.  There are 99 convention delates available in the Florida Primary.  Florida has the third most delegates with only Texas (155) and California (172) having more delegates in play.

Prior to Florida, Republicans will have held Primaries in 16 States.  Additionally, the Republicans will have caucused in 11 States.  These primaries and caucuses account for 999 of the possible 2472 delegates (40.4%). After March 15 there are 18 primaries and 3 Republican Caucuses with 1115 available delegates (45.1%).

 

 

PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES WHO SERVED AS ELECTED OFFICIALS IN FLORIDA

In 2016 there are 2 candidates that served as elected officials in the State of Florida.  Both have won statewide wide elections and have name recognition throughout the state.

Jeb Bush was Florida’s 43rd Governor from 1999 to 2007.  Gov. Bush won the 1998 gubernatorial election easily over Democratic challenger Buddy Mackay.  Bush collected 55% of the vote.  Bush won by a similar margin in 2002 over Democrat Bill Mcbride.  The Jeb 2016 website touts the “conservative reforms Jeb enacted as governor are still making a difference”. Gov. Bush is considered an establishment candidate.  Gov. Bush left office with a 64% job approval rating, according to opportunitylives.com.

Marco Rubio served as a city commissioner in Miami before being elected to the Florida House of Representatives in 2000.  He served as Speaker of the House beginning in 2006 until he left office due to term limits in 2008.  Rubio was elected Senator in 2010 garnering 49% of the vote beating former Florida Governor Charles Crist by 19%.  He won this election as a “tea party” candidate but he is now sometimes referred to as an establishment candidate.  Rubio announced early in his campaign he would not seek re-election in order to pursue the Republican Presidential nomination.

 

FLORIDA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY HISTORY

The Florida Republican primary winner has won the nomination each time since 1976.  According to real clear politics the current leading Republican candidates would all beat Hillary Clinton in a Presidential election.

 

FLORIDA VOTING IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

In Presidential elections Florida has an interesting voting history.  In the 10 Presidential elections since 1972 Florida has picked the winner 9 times. The 9 winning Presidents were Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan twice, Bill Clinton’s second term, George W. Bush twice and Barack Obama twice.  In 1992 Florida voted for incumbent President George H.W. Bush who lost to President Bill Clinton.  In these 10 elections Florida voted for a Republican President 6 times with 4 being a Bush.  Florida’s population growth increased the electoral college votes from 17 in 1976 to 29 in 2016.  Since 2000 the average Democratic vote averaged 49.2% while the Republicans averaged 49.5%, in effect an even split.  The 2000 Presidential Election “hanging chad” is testament to the closeness of the Democrat vs Republican vote and the importance of Florida in Presidential elections.

 

 

Summary

Donald Trump is currently the frontrunner in the national and Florida republican presidential race.   When it comes time to vote in Florida, can he hold off a strong conservative candidate in Cruz, two wildcard candidates in Kasich and Carson and two of Florida’s favorite political sons in the voting booth. Whatever the outcome it can be expected the Florida Primary results will impact the Republican nomination and the Presidential election.