The Presidential elections of 1976 and 2016 have contextual and campaign similarities. War, terrorism, unemployment, recession, antiestablishment candidates and mistrust of the federal government are common issues in both elections. The 1976 primaries produced James Earl Carter and incumbent Gerald R. Ford as the respective nominees for the Democratic and Republican parties. Carter ultimately wins a close election giving Democrats control of both the executive and legislative branches of government. Understanding the contextual and campaign similarities, lessons from the 1976 Campaign may again be valuable to candidates in the 2016 Presidential Election.
Part 1-Context of the 1976 Campaign
Political Situation
The 1976 election found incumbent Republican President Gerald Ford facing significant political, foreign policy and economic obstacles in his re-election bid. Politically, the first obstacle was the fact that he was never elected to the Presidency. Ford was sworn in as President after the resignation of Richard Nixon. The circumstances of Nixon’s resignation and the attempted cover-up created an overriding feeling of mistrust for politicians and government in the electorate. The second political obstacle also stems from the Watergate scandal. The fact Ford was not elected made him appear vulnerable and an easy target for Democrats and fellow Republicans as well.
Foreign Policy and International Relations
The Paris peace Accords ended the Vietnam War on paper in 1973. American military forces remained in Vietnam in support and advisor roles with significantly reduced exposure to hostile fire. In early 1975 North Vietnam calculated the time was right for a military push south and by April Saigon had fallen to the North. The evacuation of Saigon was viewed both internationally and nationally as a picture of a weak America in retreat. The Khmer Rouge, communist Cambodian guerillas, recognized the perceived weakness and seized the American flagged cargo ship Mayaguez in international waters off the coast of Cambodia one month after the evacuation of Saigon.
This era also saw terrorism arrive in America on a large scale. (Bergen 2015) The reasons for terrorist incidents ranged from international concerns to domestic politics. Americans watched in horror as a Southern Airways flight from Birmingham was hijacked, making several stops in U.S. cities before landing in Havana, Cuba in November 1972. Hijackings were common in the 1970’s for political and criminal reasons. In 1975 dynamite was placed in a locker at LaGuardia Airport and the resulting explosion injured passengers and workers. There were attacks on US embassies in Philippines, Cyprus and Malaysia between 1972 and 1975. The attack in Cyprus killed the American Ambassador. There were two additional assassinations of American Ambassadors between 1973 and 1976. The kidnapping and execution of Israeli athletes by Palestinian terrorist at the 1972 Munich Olympics exposed was covered in great detail on the American television networks. The media coverage exposed America to terrorism on a national level and brought the “terror” of terrorism into American living rooms.
Video: Jim McKay Munich Olympic Coverage
Relations between the three superpowers oscillated between détente and a proxy war in Angola. The USSR and United States signed the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks in May 1972. This agreement limited the number of strategic ballistic missiles. The superpowers put on a pretense of diplomacy all the while engaged in a proxy war in Angola. The agreement stipulated that the parties would continue negotiations and a second round of talks began in November 1972. This second treaty would be a high profile foreign policy objective for the next American President.
The Chinese government, uneasy with their two rivals’ attempts at non-confrontational relationship, agreed to a visit by President Nixon in February 1972. The visit normalized relations between the United States and China. It was hoped the visit would ease tension in China’s dispute with Taiwan and also open a new market for use goods. It was hoped the new Chinese market would stimulate the economy.
The Economy
The economy of the early 1970’s was characterized by high unemployment and high inflation. The simple fact there was more baby boomers than jobs. Production of goods was down due to the gas crisis and rising oil prices. Since the supply of goods fell the result was an increase in prices. The high inflation and high energy costs sucked money out of the American household budgets. The crisis was caused by an agreement between OPEC oil ministers to curtailed export of oil to the west in protest to the west’s support of Israel.
The next American President would face a daunting task in having to restore the trust of the people in their government, devise a foreign policy best suited to protect American interests in a changing and increasingly violent world and alleviate economic hardship for the average American.
Part 2-Coverage of the Campaign
Pre-Primary
The Summer of 1975 found both Republican and Democratic political vultures ready to pounce on a weak President. While the vultures circled, President Ford was busy running the Government as he thought best. The Republican President was opposed by a Democratic House and Senate. The ideological difference between the branches caused little progress to be made on the issues of the day. The Democratic legislature passed bills that Ford deemed expensive and inconsistent with his political platform. Ford was not afraid to use the veto in this ideological battle. In his 28-month Presidency he used the regular and pocket veto 66 times. The vetoes were overridden only 12 times. The vetoes of bills included funding education, providing healthcare and emergency employment. Ford’s vetoing of these programs did not generate much political support from the electorate.
The former Republican Governor of California Ronald Reagan was reported to be considering a run for the Presidency and in July 1975 Sen. Laxalt of Nevada announced the formation of the “Citizens for Reagan Committee”. The intent was to convince Reagan to run and provide funds for a campaign.
During the primaries seventeen Democrats contended for the nomination. The leading Democratic contenders in 1975 were Sen. Edmund Muskie, Sen Henry Jackson and Congressman Morris “Mo” Udall. A January 1975 poll had Sen Muskie ahead of Ford by one percentage point. The field eventually contracted to five Senators, one Congressmen and two Governors. The least known candidate was Gov. Jimmy Carter of Georgia. Carters anonymity enabled him to run as a political outsider and a new face on the national political stage. He did have strong establishment connections through his tenure as chair of the Democratic Governor’s Campaign Committee. This gave Carter access to key democrats on national and local level.
The Primaries and Conventions
Republicans Ford and Reagan battled throughout the primaries. Ford’s early wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Vermont, Florida and Illinois gave the incumbent a lead Reagan could not overcome. Reagan did rally winning Texas in a Landslide followed by a majority of states in the west and the corn belt. The late rally made the delegate count close. In the end, Ford won a majority of delegates in 26 states with 53% of the popular vote while Reagan won 24 states and 46% of the vote. Both candidates were short of the 1130 delegates needed for the nomination so the Republicans found themselves in a contested convention in Kansas City.
Reagan made a strategic error at the convention that ended his bid at the nomination. In order to appeal to moderates and erode Fords edge in the north east, Reagan announced he had selected Pennsylvania Senator Richard Schweiker as his Vice Presidential running mate. This move failed to attract moderates and alienated some southern conservative supporters. The result was Ford won a close first ballot 1187-1070. After Ford secured the nomination he announced Sen Bob Dole as his running mate. Dole, a Kansas Senator, with an eye to degrade Carters momentum in the corn belt.
The Democrats began the primary season in Iowa with a large field of candidates. Jimmy Carter’s anonymity gave him the opportunity to present himself as an outsider even thought he was the chair of the Democratic Governor’s Campaign Committee. This new face in the well-established Democratic party performed well in the early primaries finishing second in Iowa and winning New Hampshire a week later. The second place finish in Iowa is significant in that a majority Iowans remained uncommitted rather than choose a candidate giving Carter a win of sorts. The momentum from these early wins propelled Carter to victories in 30 states winning 40% of the popular vote. The electorate responded to Carter’s message of “I will never lie to you”, a reference to the Nixon administration’s lies about the Watergate scandal.
There was resistance to Carter in the latter stages of the Democratic primaries. While Carter was short of the needed delegates a movement called “ABC” or anyone but Carter was mounted by California Governor Jerry Brown and Sen Frank Church of Idaho. Their campaigns won 8 of the later primaries but did not prevent Carter from winning the nomination.
In the end, eight of the democratic candidates won primaries which possibly indicated a weak and fractured party. The convention was held in New York. Carter easily had the delegates required for the nomination so the main goal of the convention was to present an image of a unified party going into the general election.
The General Election: Ford’s Storms Back but Falls Short
A June Harris poll had Ford trailing behind the presumptive Democrat nominee 55-37. The double digit gap can easily be attributed to Watergate, the Nixon pardon and Vietnam. Ford did have time to make up ground as the poll was released three weeks before the convention and five months before the general election. The Bicentennial gave sitting President Ford the opportunity to project himself as a face of patriotism. Ford acted as the featured speaker in celebrations around the country during the Bicentennial celebration. The flag waving fervor of the bicentennial and the coverage of the contested convention flipped the polling by the middle of July to a 53-36 advantage for Ford.
The polls again narrowed as both Carter and Ford fumbled during their campaigns. Carter’s interview in the November issue of Playboy cost him southern conservative votes with quotes like “I’ve looked on a lot of women with lust. I’ve committed adultery in my heart many times.” Ford’s gaff was during the second of three debates when he said “there is no Soviet domination of eastern Europe, and there never will be under a Ford administration.” As a result, the polls narrowed again and on the eve of the election Ford held a mere 1 percentage point lead.
The results for the election were foreshadowed with the Nielsen TV ratings on the eve of the election. The candidates bought alternating 30-minute time slots to air their respective political message on the three broadcast networks. Carter won the ratings war with a 34.2% share to Fords 25.3%. Carter won the popular vote 50.1% to 48 and the electoral college 297-240. Ford however carried more states 27 to 23. The election of Carter gave the Democrats the Executive and Legislative branches of the government.
Video: Ford 30 minute Election Eve Broadcast
Part 3-Lessons from the 1976 Campaign in Play during the 2016 Presidential Election
The candidates of 2016 would be well served heading lessons from the 1976 election cycle. When dealing with anti-government public sentiment a candidate should position themselves as an outsider as Carter did in 1976. Candidates running as outsiders will eventually need their parties political network. The candidate and establishment must embrace each other to at least give the appearance of party unity. Also, candidates looking to avoid being bogged down by their political histories should promote a nationalistic platform rather than continuing to argue for their unpopular programs like Ford did in 1976. Vice Presidential choices can help (Dole) or hurt (Schweiker) candidates in close general elections or contested conventions.
The 2016 election is indeed a trip to 1976 in many respects. Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton is dogged by scandals including an incident where a U.S Ambassador was killed. She faced a strong challenge from Bernie Sanders. American foreign policy is mired in a proxy war in Syria. The U.S. military has withdrawn from Iraq and Afghanistan allowing our ideological opposition to obtain hegemonic control of the region. The United States is again attempting to compete in Chinese markets through the Trans Pacific Partnership. Terrorist incidents have increased in tempo around the world. The republicans had seventeen candidates with political outsider Donald Trump the presumptive nominee. Candidates Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have built their campaigns around the public sentiment of distrust in government caused by rigged political systems. The public perceives the economic recovery is to slow. The head to head polls between presumptive nominees have Trump narrowing Clintons lead. One difference is it seems the Republicans and Democrats have switched their positions a complete 180 degrees. If history does indeed repeat itself, the inauguration of President Trump is inevitable.
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