Month: February 2016

Florida Republican Primary- Monday February 15, 2016 to Sunday February 28, 2016

The Presidential Primary builds momentum in the Sunshine State as March 15 Primaries potentially make or break nominees.  Voters can request an absentee ballot be sent by mail between February 9 and March 9, 2016.  The five remaining candidates continue to compete for airtime but Trump, Rubio and Cruz dominate the news cycle. Quinnipiac released a new poll of likely Republican voters on February 25.   Florida Gov. Rick Scott has not endorsed a candidate.  In a late January press conference, he was asked of his plans to endorse a candidate and he replied he will before the Primary.  The interest in the Governors endorsement came likely because of an OP Ed in USA Today he wrote called “Donald Trump has Americas Pulse.”

Florida readies itself for the Primary

The Sunday Feb 14 Miami Herald reported the absentee ballots were mailed out on February 9th.  These ballots include candidates that have dropped out since the printing.  According to Florida law early voting can begin February 29. The final opportunity to declare or change a party affiliation will be Tuesday February 16.  The herald observed that Floridians seemed to be focused on the election and election officials are preparing for higher than average turnout.  In 2008 42% and 2012 41% of registered Republican and Democrat voters participated in the primary.

Trump

On the eve of the South Carolina primary Presidential Debate candidate Donald Trump packed the University of South Florida Sun Dome with 10,000 supporters.  Trump took the opportunity to attack Bush, eliminate common core and solicit the Hispanic vote.

A NY Times report alleged Trump is hiring foreigners in the country on H2B visas to work at his Mar a Lago estate in Palm Beach at the expense of Floridians.   The article says since 2010 300 Floridians applied for jobs at the estate but only 17 were hired.  Some hires were foreign in the country on temporary H2B visas which are reserved for persons without special skills and limited nationwide.   Persons in the United States on these visas cannot be hired before a US citizen.  Trump rivals smelled blood and attacked.  In related campaign news Trump received endorsement from former Presidential candidate and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.

Rubio

Marco Rubio has picked up the support of several local Florida Politicians.  The spurt of endorsements came after the endorsement of South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Jeb Bush suspended his campaign.   Gov. Haley committed this week to a Rubio rally on March 12 in St. Petersburg.  Rubio likes his chances and feels the race is narrowing.

“So you have had Donald Trump sitting at around 30 percent or so nationally — sometimes under, sometimes a little over and then you have 70 percent of the Republican electorate does not support Donald Trump.” Rubio said.  “That 70 percent has been divided between five to seven people. As this race continues to narrow, I think that’ll be easier and easier, for that 70 percent to coalesce.”

Rubio is looking mare like an establishment candidate.  He will open a campaign Headquarters in Jacksonville to focus on northeast Florida on Tuesday, a week ahead of the Super Tuesday Primary.  The new location is a few blocks away from Florida’s Republican Headquarters and the site of the republican mayor of Jacksonville’s 2015 campaign headquarters.

Cruz

Ted Cruz hasn’t touched the Sunshine state recently.  He is in the headlines as news for his debate and campaign trail rhetoric.  The Florida-Elect Ted Cruz Facebook page has 3,717 likes.  I have more and in the latest poll he is in third behind Trump and Rubio at 12%.  It look like Florida is a lost cause for Cruz

Polls

A new Quinnipiac poll was released this week with Trump ahead easily.  The poll of likely republican voters showed Trump at 44% with Rubio (28%), Cruz (12%) Kasich (7%) and Carson (4%) trailing.  There are 15% either undecided or holding out for a Bush comeback.

Super Tuesday

March 1 is Super Tuesday.  The available delegates are not enough to wrap the nomination but at the end of the day a little more than half of the 1327 needed will be split among the candidates.  Candidates will have a clear picture on what it will take to secure the nomination if they assess they still have a chance.  Electability in the general election will begin to be a concern for voters and donors.  Super Tuesday can completely change the landscape of the March 15 Florida primary.

The candidates have been active on social media.  Here are some tweets to consider:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Do you really want to cover a modern Presidential election?

Laura Hazard Owen’s interview of The Boston Globe’s 2016 Election election reporter James Pindell is an eye-opener.   The Q & A with Pindell highlights the workload, the changing face of print journalism and the growing extent social media is used as a tool to deliver the Globe’s reporting to the consumer.

Pindell discusses the benefits of platforms he used including Twitter, email, Facebook and Periscope and Facebook live.

“Obviously Twitter is where the conversation is happening on the campaign trail: Pindell relates to Owen.  A quick check of the major candidate’s twitter feeds confirms this: Hillary Clinton 4.2K tweets/ 5.43M followers, Bernie Sanders 13.7K Tweets/1.47 M followers, Donald Trump 30.9K Tweets/6.24 M followers, Ted Cruz 3.9K tweets/697K followers.  Many candidates have multiple feeds relating to their respective campaigns.

Pindell used a Facebook live broadcast to provide real time coverage and analysis of the Primary.  This expands the Globe’s traditional print media footprint to include real-time news coverage delivered direct to their consumers.

The change in traditional print journalism is summed up in Pindell’s observation, “I’m digital first at the Globe”.

 

The complete article is available at:

James Pindell is trying to bring The Boston Globe’s election coverage to everyone by being everywhere By LAURA HAZARD OWEN

Florida Republican Primary- Week of Monday February 8, 2016 to Sunday February 14, 2016

INTRODUCTION

Florida Republicans will vote in a winner take all primary election on Tuesday March 15, 2016. In order to set the landscape for the Florida Republican Primary I felt a survey of he latest polls and a basic understanding of the Republican nomination process is a good beginning.  Secondly, two of the remaining candidates are current or former elected officials of the state of Florida and their political familiarity with Florida voters will factor into the race.  Finally, to determine the importance of the Florida primary two questions must be considered.  They are Do winners of the primary obtain the nomination? and if so, how do they fair in the general election?

 

Florida Polling

Real Clear Politics averaged polls of likely voters conducted by CBS News, Florida Atlantic University and the Florida Times Union between January 15 to January 21.  These polls have Donald Trump in the lead with 40% followed by Cruz (19.0%), Rubio (13.7%), Bush (9.0), Carson (5.0%) and Kasich (2.3%). The remaining 11% are for candidates the have suspended their campaigns since the polls.  August 2015 found Gov. Bush the early leader.  Trump began to close the gap in September and increased his lead steadily from October to January.  Cruz is the next largest increase, up 15% since August 2015.

 

 

ROAD TO THE CONVENTION

To secure the nomination, a Republican Presidential candidate will need 1237 of 2472 delegates at the August 6th Republican convention in Cleveland, Ohio.  The current republican delegate count is Trump 17, Cruz 11, Rubio 10, Kasich 5, Bush 4 and Carson 3.  Florida along with Illinois, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina will hold primaries on March 15 with 358 total delegates available.  According to Republican convention rules all primaries on or after March 15 award the winner all the delegates for that State.  There are 99 convention delates available in the Florida Primary.  Florida has the third most delegates with only Texas (155) and California (172) having more delegates in play.

Prior to Florida, Republicans will have held Primaries in 16 States.  Additionally, the Republicans will have caucused in 11 States.  These primaries and caucuses account for 999 of the possible 2472 delegates (40.4%). After March 15 there are 18 primaries and 3 Republican Caucuses with 1115 available delegates (45.1%).

 

 

PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES WHO SERVED AS ELECTED OFFICIALS IN FLORIDA

In 2016 there are 2 candidates that served as elected officials in the State of Florida.  Both have won statewide wide elections and have name recognition throughout the state.

Jeb Bush was Florida’s 43rd Governor from 1999 to 2007.  Gov. Bush won the 1998 gubernatorial election easily over Democratic challenger Buddy Mackay.  Bush collected 55% of the vote.  Bush won by a similar margin in 2002 over Democrat Bill Mcbride.  The Jeb 2016 website touts the “conservative reforms Jeb enacted as governor are still making a difference”. Gov. Bush is considered an establishment candidate.  Gov. Bush left office with a 64% job approval rating, according to opportunitylives.com.

Marco Rubio served as a city commissioner in Miami before being elected to the Florida House of Representatives in 2000.  He served as Speaker of the House beginning in 2006 until he left office due to term limits in 2008.  Rubio was elected Senator in 2010 garnering 49% of the vote beating former Florida Governor Charles Crist by 19%.  He won this election as a “tea party” candidate but he is now sometimes referred to as an establishment candidate.  Rubio announced early in his campaign he would not seek re-election in order to pursue the Republican Presidential nomination.

 

FLORIDA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY HISTORY

The Florida Republican primary winner has won the nomination each time since 1976.  According to real clear politics the current leading Republican candidates would all beat Hillary Clinton in a Presidential election.

 

FLORIDA VOTING IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

In Presidential elections Florida has an interesting voting history.  In the 10 Presidential elections since 1972 Florida has picked the winner 9 times. The 9 winning Presidents were Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan twice, Bill Clinton’s second term, George W. Bush twice and Barack Obama twice.  In 1992 Florida voted for incumbent President George H.W. Bush who lost to President Bill Clinton.  In these 10 elections Florida voted for a Republican President 6 times with 4 being a Bush.  Florida’s population growth increased the electoral college votes from 17 in 1976 to 29 in 2016.  Since 2000 the average Democratic vote averaged 49.2% while the Republicans averaged 49.5%, in effect an even split.  The 2000 Presidential Election “hanging chad” is testament to the closeness of the Democrat vs Republican vote and the importance of Florida in Presidential elections.

 

 

Summary

Donald Trump is currently the frontrunner in the national and Florida republican presidential race.   When it comes time to vote in Florida, can he hold off a strong conservative candidate in Cruz, two wildcard candidates in Kasich and Carson and two of Florida’s favorite political sons in the voting booth. Whatever the outcome it can be expected the Florida Primary results will impact the Republican nomination and the Presidential election.

Weekly Political News Filter: Week ofMonday February 8, 2016 to Sunday February 14, 2016

Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary was the natural topic in the early part of the week followed by run up for the next major election events.  For Democrats, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders was all but given this primary because of his consistently large pre-primary polling and regional popularity.  Sanders met with the Reverend Al Sharpton courting a needed demographic in the upcoming South Carolina and Nevada Primaries.  Clinton was again hounded by her email controversy.  Also, a Democratic debate in Wisconsin on Thursday night relit fireworks from previous debates. For Republicans, New Hampshire again is a game of political survivor.  Trump lead all candidates in pre primary polls and his campaign would likely survive a non win but for the Governors, Bush, Kasich and Christie it would be unlikely poor performers would continue.

Democratic results were as predicted with Sanders winning easily (60.4%) over Clinton (38.0%).  Sanders added 15 convention delegates for a total of 36 while Clinton added 9 for a total of 32 delegates.

In the Wisconsin debate, the candidates restated their positions and policies on the needed reform to the criminal justice system, the political issues for women in America and the corruption of campaign finance by Wall Street.  The most contentious comments came near the end of the debate where both candidates argued on why they were the best choice to build on the Obama policies.

Reports that Clinton aid Jake Sullivan may have mishandled Top Secret material surfaced in an apparently expanding investigation.  If true Sullivan would become a subject in the FBI investigation.   Clinton’s campaign says the allegations are based on political gain.

Trump convincingly won the Republican primary collecting 35.3% of the vote and 10 convention delegates.  Gov. Kasich’s second place finish with 15.8% and 4 delegates gave him immunity at the “New Hampshire tribal council”.  Rounding out Republican candidates collecting delegates in New Hampshire are Sen. Cruz 11.7% with 3 delegates, Gov. Bush 11.0% and 3 delegates and Sen Rubio 10.6% and 3 delegates.  Gov. Christie’s 6th place (7.4%) and poor performance of Carly Fiorina forced the suspension of their campaigns leaving Ben Carson (2.3%) as the only other candidate in the race.  The current republican delegate count is Trump 17, Cruz 11, Rubio 10, Kasich 5, Bush 4 and Carson 3.  There are 1237 needed for nomination with 2472 available.[1]

The Nevada Caucuses and South Carolina Primaries are the final early voting states. Each party has its respective caucus or primary on a different day between February 20 and February 27.  Super Tuesday March 1 is on the horizon.

[1] Source for Election results and delegate totals are the Associated Press

Weekly Political News Filter: Week of Monday February 1,2016 to Sunday February 6, 2016

The 2016 Presidential election dominated the news cycle Monday with traditionally the first election event, the Iowa Caucus.  Candidates in a crowded Republican field need a top tier finish for campaign survival and momentum.  Democratic candidates vied for each voter in a tight race.  The election night speeches were amenable but as candidates moved on to New Hampshire allegations of cheating and fraud on the republican side and personal attacks on the Democratic side increased.  The winning candidates are by no means ahead and pulling away, they face considerable obstacles on the road to their party’s nomination and many of the remaining candidates are viable in upcoming primary states.

The Republican winner was Ted Cruz (28%) followed by Donald Trump(24%) Marco Rubio (23) and Ben Carson(9%).  The poor showings for Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum forced the suspension of their campaign for President.  The Cruz campaign reacted to false news reports of Ben Carson’s leaving the race and urged Cruz supports to solicit now available Carson supporters. The Cruz campaign also sent a “voter violation” mailing with “scores” of the recipients and neighbors voting record.  These acts drew allegations of cheating and a call to void the votes from Trump and criticism from Carson.

The Democrat race remained tight with Hilary Clinton winning with Bernie Sanders in a near tie. Reports of winning her .2% victory by coin flip in some precincts circulated in the media and ead the Sanders campaign to ask for a review of procedures. The poor showing by Martin O’Malley forced the suspension of his command.  With no clear winner the candidates head to New Hampshire amid increased attacks.  Sanders questions Clinton’s ability to reign in Wall Street when she accepted approximately 625000 from Goldman Sachs for three speech’s.  This came to a head in the Democratic New Hampshire debate as candidates traded attacks and attempted to present their policies as the most progressive. Clinton called on Sanders to stop his “artful smear” campaign tactics.